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Remember when Democrats couldn’t win?

At 100-day mark, the public expresses its disapproval of the president

President Donald Trump has seen his poll numbers decline a little over three months into his second term, Rothenberg writes.
President Donald Trump has seen his poll numbers decline a little over three months into his second term, Rothenberg writes. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

I’m old enough to remember when political observers, television talking heads and political journalists spent virtually every hour of every day talking about Democrats’ lack of a message and the party’s poor standing even among their own partisans.

While a few agreed with veteran Democratic campaign consultant James Carville’s advice that Democrats should keep their powder dry and wait for Republicans to stumble and give them opportunities to counterattack, most talked about the importance of the party having an agenda and who should speak for the party. 

Now, less than a month later, those in the media and the political world have digested surveys conducted to measure public opinion at President Donald Trump’s 100-day mark. What they found is that Trump is in a politically dangerous situation. 

The most recent NBC News survey (conducted April 11-20 of almost 20,000 adults) found Trump’s job approval at 45 percent, while 55 percent disapproved of his performance.

Independents, in particular, have changed their opinion of Trump and his administration, according to the NBC News survey, turning strongly negative against the president in his overall job approval rating (32 percent approve/68 percent disapprove). The same holds true when it comes to rating Trump on individual issues, from foreign policy to tariffs and trade. 

Other surveys, including one by CBS News/YouGov, one just released by CNN/SSRS, and another by ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos, also showed voters increasingly critical of Trump.

CBS News/YouGov, for example, found that “more Americans continue to say Trump’s policies are making them financially worse off than better off. Expectations at the start of his term were different — more expected his policies to improve their finances.”

ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos found that Trump had “the lowest 100-day job approval rating of any president in the past 80 years, with public pushback on many of his policies and extensive economic discontent, including broad fears of a recession.”

Yes, I know that Democrats are still arguing with each other about what their message should be and who should deliver it, and that gives Republicans an opportunity to keep Democrats on the defensive. But the discussion about Democrats’ positioning, tactics and strategy has changed over the past few days, undercutting the GOP’s advantage.

The “out” party invariably looks weak and divided, especially when it doesn’t control either chamber of Congress or the White House. That is the situation now. But that is not a fatal flaw for Democrats given Trump’s developing weakness on taxes, tariffs and the economy.

Suddenly, Democrats are poised to make gains that would likely be large enough to win back the House in next year’s midterm elections. There’s even a murmur here and there about the political environment being so bad for the GOP that the Senate might be in play.

It’s still more than a year and half until the midterms, so we don’t now what the environment will be like next year. Much depends on candidate recruitment, fundraising and the state of the economy.

Trump still has an army of supporters who will back him no matter what he says or does. That, plus his willingness to use every tool at his disposal — lawful or not — gives him opportunities to reshape the political landscape.

But the dramatic change in sentiment that’s been picked up by numerous surveys can’t be ignored. Trump looks more vulnerable than he’s ever been before, and he’ll need swing voters to become more optimistic if he is going to regain his momentum.

Tariffs continue to be the president’s greatest problem. He spent years talking about how wonderful tariffs were that he can’t simply switch his position, even though voters and economists agree that tariffs are destroying the economy and, quite possibly, bringing on a recession.

For the moment, the president remains in an awkward position. He points to low unemployment numbers that could change at any moment, and he is surrounded by “yes men” who are more interested in telling Trump what he wants to hear rather than what he needs to know.

But voters can see for themselves that prices are going up, and Trump can’t simply talk himself out of his current conundrum the way he has done in the past. 

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