At the Races: Seeing red in Minnesota?

By Mary Ellen McIntire, Daniela Altimari and Niels Lesniewski

Posted October 15, 2026 at 3:55pm

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By Mary Ellen McIntire, Daniela Altimari and Niels Lesniewski

Campaigning some thousand miles away in Ohio this week, President Donald Trump urged Minnesotans to vote for Republican Michele Tafoya, who is seeking to flip the blue-leaning state’s open Senate seat.

Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, the Democratic nominee, quickly sought to capitalize on the endorsement, while Tafoya, a former NFL sideline reporter, didn’t do much to tout it.

“Look, this campaign is about bringing all Minnesotans together, whether they voted for President Trump or whether they voted for Kamala Harris,” the Republican said at a Tuesday news conference, according to the Minnesota Reformer.

Tafoya’s lukewarm reaction is reflective of the line she is walking in a state that backed Harris in 2024 but that Senate Republicans see as a rare pickup opportunity this year. Recent polls have shown Tafoya trailing Flanagan by single digits. Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales shifted the race rating in Republicans’ favor earlier this month, from Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic.

But the Gopher State hasn’t elected a Republican to statewide office in two decades, and in a year when the GOP faces competitive Senate elections in several deep-red states, the party is yet to make a full-throttle play for Minnesota as they have in Michigan and New Hampshire.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune campaigned for Tafoya earlier this month, and Sen. Tim Scott, who heads Senate Republicans’ campaign arm, continues to cite the polls showing a close race.

But Republican groups like the Senate Leadership Fund and entities affiliated with Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC have not invested in the state so far. Similarly, top Democratic outside groups have also not engaged in the race.

Still, Republicans believe the major fraud scandal that rocked the state last year and pushed Gov. Tim Walz to drop his reelection bid has created a vulnerability for his No. 2, though Walz has maintained that Flanagan was not responsible.

Tafoya and Flanagan are set to meet for a debate Friday.

Starting gate

Roll Call on the road: Four House races in Pennsylvania could help decide control of the chamber this year. One of them is the contest for the 8th District, where Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti, like other Democratic candidates across the country, is leaning into anti-corruption messaging as she takes on Republican freshman Rob Bresnahan Jr., who is emphasizing the times when he’s broken with his party. Mary Ellen and Roll Call photojournalist Tom Williams joined editor-in-chief Jason Dick on the latest “Political Theater” podcast to talk about their recent trip to the Keystone State, including how Sha Na Na frontman and Social Security advocate Jon “Bowzer” Bauman is trying to fire up Democratic voters.

Playing hardball: The House Freedom Caucus is poised to lose several stalwarts after this year, but a new crop of leaders stands ready to steer the hard-line conservative bloc and shape the Republican policy agenda – no matter which party controls the chamber.

Purple politics: After trending red over the past decade, Iowa is battleground territory once again, with the Hawkeye State playing host to pivotal races for the Senate and House. Student journalists from USC Annenberg Media crisscrossed the state recently, talking to voters and politicians and found an “engaged electorate frustrated with partisan politics and hoping for candidates who will work on local issues.”

Omar targeted: A federal search of Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar’s Washington residence sent political shockwaves this week, and some experts worry it could set a wider precedent for how the Trump administration handles investigations of other Democrats, our colleague Michael Macagnone reports. The probe, which reportedly centers on immigration paperwork that Omar used to secure legal status and ultimately U.S. citizenship, has also put a spotlight on the agency that carried out the raid, Roll Call’s Paul M. Krawzak and Jacob Fulton reported.

Exit interview: Senate Minority Whip Richard J. Durbin, who is retiring after this year, spoke to Roll Call’s Nina Heller about his more-than-four decades in Congress, including how “painful” it is to leave with his DREAM Act yet to become law. Niels also looked back at the Illinois Democrat’s influence on another matter: the business of baseball.

First ladies: Two senators and a House delegate are among several women who could be elected as the first female governors of their states or territory next month.

ICYMI

No to 2028: Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff pledged to serve a full six-year term if the Democrat is reelected next month, saying on the debate stage this week that he had “zero interest” in running for president.

Triage time: Punchbowl News reported that groups tied to Trump’s MAGA Inc. have pulled ad money from the districts of Democratic Reps. Tom Suozzi of New York and Susie Lee of Nevada. Congressional Leadership Fund, the top House GOP super PAC, and other groups have reportedly also redirected funds from the races of vulnerable Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa and Thomas H. Kean Jr. of New Jersey and canceled reservations meant to boost the challengers to Democrats Henry Cuellar of Texas, Greg Landsman of Ohio and Kristen McDonald Rivet of Michigan.

#FL27: Republican Rep. María Elvira Salazar, who famously broke with Trump on immigration last month, touted an endorsement from Colombian President Abelardo de la Espriella as she seeks a fourth term representing her Miami district, home to significant Colombian population. While de la Espriella is a U.S. citizen, House Foreign Affairs ranking member Gregory W. Meeks said his “decision to involve himself in an American election while serving as the leader of Colombia” jeopardizes bipartisan support for the Washington-Bogota alliance.

More endorsements: The political arm of the moderate Blue Dog Coalition rolled out more endorsements of Democrats running in deep-red terrain: Nancy Lacore in South Carolina’s 1st District; Dwayne Romero in Colorado’s 3rd; Don Coover in Kansas’ 2nd; Paul Barringer in North Carolina’s 13th; Eileen Laubacher in Colorado’s 4th; Amanda Marie Green in Florida’s 2nd; and Zack Mullock in New Jersey’s 2nd. In Colorado, GOP former Rep. Ken Buck endorsed and cut a video for Democrat Phil Weiser, who’s running for governor. And in New Hampshire, Don Bolduc, the state’s 2022 Republican nominee for Senate, endorsed Democrat Chris Pappas’ campaign for Senate against GOP former Sen. John E. Sununu.

Trump on the trail: The president returns to the campaign circuit Friday, with a visit to Georgia, followed by trips to Kentucky on Saturday, Kansas on Monday and North Carolina on Tuesday. Local Republican officials in South Carolina say the president will visit their state on Wednesday, while the Iowa GOP chairman says Trump plans to visit the state twice before Election Day, including next Thursday.

Former POTII on the trail: Former President Barack Obama, whose increasing campaign activities we reported on last week, also plans to campaign next week in Ohio, a state he carried twice while running for president. Former President Bill Clinton also plans to hit the trail, rallying on Tuesday with former Rep. David Jolly, the Republican-turned-Democrat running for Florida governor.

Nathan’s notes

While dozens of House Republicans are sweating their reelection bids, the party’s biggest challenge lies with GOP-held open seats, according to Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales of Inside Elections.

Republican nominees in these districts often don’t have established profiles to help carry them through a challenging election for their party, Nathan writes.

What we’re reading

AI mystery: The pro-AI Leading the Future super PAC has raised enormous sums to promote candidates on both sides of the aisle. Wired looked at a mysterious group of Nevada-based LLCs that are behind the PAC, which election watchdogs say are shell companies created to “to mask the identities of strategists, consultants, and production companies who are working with Leading the Future.”

The new Steny: Politico caught up with House Minority Whip Katherine M. Clark, whom some Democrats say will restore “a sense of order” to the chamber if the party wins the majority this year.

Dark money drama: Outside money is fueling a state Senate race in western Pennsylvania between the Republican incumbent and an independent candidate who is running on a populist message, Spotlight PA reports.

Weird and wacky: State Navigate examines some of the quirky candidates, bizarre controversies and messy feuds playing out in legislative contests around the nation.

Stop the press: Candidates across the country have attempted to restrict press access to their campaigns, The Washington Sun reports, the latest being Republican Rep. Andy Harris, who tried to bar a reporter from recording him during a media availability after a candidate forum in Maryland.

Internal affairs: A flurry of partisan polls – mostly from Democrats – offer a window into the expanding House battleground, but, as the National Journal reports, they could also be providing a flawed view of the fight for control of the chamber.

The count: 96 percent

That’s how often the most endangered House Republicans have collectively sided with Trump this year when it comes to floor votes on which he took a public position.

The group includes 16 Republicans who are running for reelection in races that Inside Elections rates as Toss-ups or favoring Democrats. Three of them were aligned with Trump’s stance on all such votes: Pennsylvania’s Ryan Mackenzie, Ohio’s Max Miller and Wisconsin’s Derrick Van Orden.

Our colleague Ryan Kelly has more on the voting records of these vulnerable Republicans, including how they may or may not have shifted from 2025.

Key race: #WA03

Candidates: Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez has twice been elected from Washington’s 3rd District, both times defeating Republican Joe Kent, who trafficked in conspiracy theories and had ties to white nationalists. But this year she faces GOP state Senate Minority Leader John Braun, a business owner and retired Navy captain whose moderate record and less flamboyant style stand in contrast to Kent.

Why it matters: The Southwest Washington district is a classic swing seat that has flipped between the two parties since the mid-1990s. Trump carried the district by 3 points in 2024, according to calculations by Inside Elections, which rates the race between Gluesenkamp Pérez and Braun a Toss-up.

Cash dash: Gluesenkamp Pérez reported raising $6.3 million through the middle of July, compared with $2.2 million for Braun. Outside groups affiliated with both parties are also spending heavily in the race, the bulk of it on the Republican side. Congressional Leadership Fund, the top House GOP super PAC, and No Going Back PAC Inc., which is aligned with Trump’s political operation, jointly spent more than $6 million on Braun’s behalf through last week. The pro-Democratic House Majority PAC had spent nearly $2 million.

Backers: Gluesenkamp Pérez, a co-chair of the moderate Blue Dog Coalition, has the backing of EMILY’s List, the Latino Victory Fund and a host of local labor organizations. Braun, who has Trump’s endorsement, is a member of the NRCC’s MAGA Majority program, which provides promising recruits with additional resources and support.

What they’re saying: Gluesenkamp Pérez has cast herself as a pragmatist willing to buck her party, even when it angers Democratic leaders, while attacking Braun as a Trump loyalist. She owns an auto repair shop with her husband and has championed vocational education and right-to-repair laws popular with rural voters. Braun has highlighted his efforts in the Legislature to fight a state tax on household income exceeding $1 million per year as well as his support for the tax-cutting provisions of Trump’s spending bill. He has derided Gluesenkamp Pérez as a D.C. insider who hasn’t accomplished much in her four years in the House.

Terrain: Washington’s 3rd District is geographically and politically diverse. Stretching along the state’s southern border, it includes Vancouver, a blue-leaning city that’s part of the Portland, Ore., metropolitan area, along with more conservative rural communities.

Wild card: Support from Trump could undercut Braun’s image as a moderate and hurt him in a midterm cycle where the president’s national approval rating is hovering in the 30s. Progressive voters will be crucial to Gluesenkamp Pérez’s reelection chances. She drew their ire over her votes for an early iteration of Trump’s voting bill, now known as the SAVE America Act, and for a measure that would require parental consent if students change their pronouns in the classroom. Democrat Brent Hennrich, an underfunded outsider who finished third running to Gluesenkamp Pérez’s left in the August all-party primary, is not backing her in the general election. He told the Washington State Standard he’d be fine with Braun winning though he wouldn’t vote for him.