Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here. The battle for the House is shaping up to be the centerpiece of the 2026 midterms. While the election is over a year away, there are a few things we’re watching this summer that will sway the campaign for the chamber, where Republicans are defending a narrow majority. First on the list is redistricting. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott on Wednesday announced his agenda for the special session of the state Legislature later this month, including coming up with “a revised congressional redistricting plan in light of constitutional concerns raised by the U.S. Department of Justice.” Allies of President Donald Trump had urged Abbott to take up the effort to redraw the Texas map, seeing it as a way to help House Republicans flip a few Democratic seats. The move has been condemned as a power grab by Democrats, including the chair of their House campaign arm, Washington Rep. Suzan DelBene, who warned that it could force more Republican incumbents in Texas into competitive races next year. The Texas news comes after the Supreme Court said last month that it would rehear a challenge to Louisiana’s congressional map, while the Wisconsin Supreme Court declined to take up a pair of challenges to its district lines. (Plaintiffs filed a new lawsuit challenging the Wisconsin map earlier this week.) The Republican-controlled Ohio General Assembly, meanwhile, has until the end of September to pass a new map, although the state’s Redistricting Commission, which is also under GOP control, has until Oct. 30 to approve a map with Democratic support. We’ll also be looking at lawmakers’ fundraising reports, due next week to the Federal Election Commission, which could offer hints about how lawmakers are thinking about next year. A lower-than-average fundraising haul can sometimes precede a retirement announcement. Three months ago, the Senate’s No. 2 Democrat, Illinois’ Richard J. Durbin, reported raising just $43,000 in the first quarter before announcing shortly thereafter that he wouldn’t seek a sixth term. Finally, both parties are crafting their messaging after last week’s passage of Republicans’ sweeping tax and spending package. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee launched its first national ad buy of the 2026 cycle, targeting 35 House Republicans over the measure’s potential impact on rural hospitals, underscoring how health care issues will likely be central to Democrats’ messaging over the next year. Meanwhile, the American Action Network, the nonprofit arm of the House GOP’s main super PAC, launched a $5 million advocacy campaign supporting the measure and criticizing Democrats for opposing it. The ad, running across 29 districts through Labor Day, says that Trump and House Republicans are “keeping their promises, and delivering the change we demanded.” Starting gate Showdown in Tucson: The apparent front-runner in Tuesday’s Democratic primary to fill the late Arizona Rep. Raúl M. Grijalva’s seat is his daughter, Adelita Grijalva, a 54-year-old former local official with establishment backing and powerful family connections. She faces four other Democrats, including former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez, 35, and Deja Foxx, a 25-year-old social media influencer and Gen Z activist. But the race doesn’t fit the conventional narrative about Democratic divisions between liberals and moderates, young and old, outsider and establishment. Osborn’s in again: Nebraska independent Dan Osborn, a former union leader who waged a competitive but ultimately unsuccessful run against Republican Sen. Deb Fischer in 2024, is trying again. This time, he’s challenging Fischer’s junior colleague, Republican Pete Ricketts. Back on the ballot: Former Florida Rep. Stephanie Murphy is running for office again. The onetime co-chair of the moderate Blue Dog Democrats joined the nonpartisan election for mayor of Orange County, home to Orlando. Tennessee special: Rep. Mark E. Green’s resignation will take effect on July 20, but the race to succeed the Republican in the upcoming special election for Tennessee’s 7th District grew this week. A trip to ‘beautiful’: It’s been a week since House Republicans narrowly passed their sweeping budget reconciliation bill, and Roll Call Managing Editor Jessica Wehrman takes a look at the spectacle and theater behind getting the measure through. ICYMI Once more in Oregon: Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley ended speculation that he could retire by formally announcing Thursday that he’s seeking a fourth term next year. “I’m asking Oregonians to be my partners once again — to join me, organize, vote, and stop Trump’s march toward a strongman authoritarian state,” the senator said in a statement. They’re running (House Republican version): Republicans landed their first recruit to challenge freshman New Jersey Rep. Nellie Pou, with Clifton Councilwoman Rosie Pino launching her campaign Thursday. Pou’s 9th District is one of 13 Democrat-held seats that Trump carried last year. In Nebraska’s battleground 2nd District, former state Sen. Brett Lindstrom is seeking the GOP nomination for the seat left vacant by Rep. Don Bacon’s retirement. In California, Republican military veteran Lorenzo Rios is challenging Democratic incumbent Jim Costa in the 21st District, a Central Valley seat that shifted right last fall. And in Kentucky’s 6th District, state Rep. Deanna Gordon has announced a bid to succeed fellow Republican Andy Barr, who’s running for Senate. They’re running (House Democratic version): Iowa attorney Taylor Wettach this week became the fourth Democrat to enter the race to unseat Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in the 1st District. Michigan State University professor Josh Cowen has joined a growing primary to take on GOP freshman Tom Barrett in Central Michigan’s 7th District. Meanwhile, in California, former OneRepublic bassist Tim Myers is dropping his bid for the 41st District and will instead run for the open lieutenant governor spot. Primary threats: In Connecticut’s deep-blue 1st District, Democratic Rep. John B. Larson is facing a primary challenge from Hartford school board member Ruth Fortune. Larson told the CT Mirror he intends to run for reelection. And in the state’s 3rd District, New Haven attorney Damjan DeNoble announced that he’ll challenge longtime incumbent Rosa DeLauro for the Democratic nomination. A comeback in the Hudson Valley? Former New York Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, who lost his seat to Republican Mike Lawler in 2022 while serving as DCCC chair, is considering joining the crowded Democratic primary for the upstate district. “I’m sure Democrats are excited about the prospects of Sean Patrick Maloney making a come back — because it worked out so well the last time,” Lawler posted on social media. Pondering a run: Georgia Rep. Mike Collins says he’s looking at challenging Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff. “I love what I’m doing now,” the second-term Republican said in a video posted on social media. “But I also understand that sometimes you don’t do what you want to do, but what you need to do.” Should he opt to run, Collins would have company in the GOP primary, which already includes a House colleague, Rep. Earl L. “Buddy” Carter, and state Insurance Commissioner John King. Politicking from the pulpit: The IRS carved out a narrow exception to a long-standing ban on political speech by tax-exempt nonprofits. The new rules permit religious leaders speaking to congregants to endorse candidates. Endorsement tracker: EMILY’s List, which backs Democratic women who support abortion rights, has endorsed Carol Obando-Derstine in Pennsylvania’s 7th District. Obando-Derstine, who emigrated from Colombia as a child, also earned the backing of BOLD PAC, the political arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, as did Denise Powell, who is Cuban American and running for Nebraska’s 2nd District. Guv roundup: Georgia Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, a close Trump ally, formally announced this week his long-awaited bid for the state’s highest office and lent his campaign $10 million as he seeks to succeed term-limited fellow Republican Brian Kemp. In Iowa, Rep. Zach Nunn is having second thoughts about not running for governor, with a source telling the Des Moines Register that state Attorney General Brenna Bird’s decision not to run has changed the dynamics. Nunn’s House colleague, Randy Feenstra, is exploring a bid for the GOP nomination. In Kansas, state Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt has joined the crowded Republican primary for the open governorship. And a pair of prominent Republicans have decided against gubernatorial bids next year: Pennsylvania Rep. Dan Meuser and Michigan podcast host Tudor Dixon, the 2022 GOP nominee for governor who is also passing on a Senate bid. Nathan’s notes Senators are retiring at a higher-than-normal pace so far this cycle, but on the House side, things are lagging behind the historical average, according to Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales of Inside Elections. Of the House members who aren’t seeking reelection next year, just three aren’t running for another office. But, as Nathan writes, there’s still plenty of time for that number to rise. What we’re reading Chat group chatter: Someone using the mobile phone number of Mike Lawler’s deputy district director appeared to infiltrate a group that’s been critical of the GOP congressman. According to the Journal News, the aide’s number popped up in a private Signal chat used by the group Fight Lawler and, under an alias, tried to foment disruption. Progressive groups have called on the aide to resign. Voting language barrier: Michigan has a large Arab American population but there’s no federal law requiring ballots to be translated into Arabic. Votebeat Michigan looks at local efforts in the Great Lake State to change that. Infighting in NYC: After Zohran Mamdani’s shocking win in New York City’s Democratic mayoral primary, other democratic socialists are warning they could primary House Democrats representing the city, CNN reports. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, potentially a top target, seems unlikely to take the threat quietly. Tillis talks: North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis told CNN that he regrets supporting Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s nomination and expressed reservations about Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. The GOP senator announced late last month that he wouldn’t run for reelection after Trump lambasted him over his opposition to the sweeping budget reconciliation bill. Veterans for front line: Democrats are recruiting a number of military veterans to run for the House next year, hoping their service backgrounds will appeal to voters otherwise turned off by the party, The Washington Post reports. The count: 99 years That’s how long it’s been since a candidate running as a member of a national third party won a seat in Congress. In 1926, Wisconsin’s Victor L. Berger, a member of the Socialist Party of America, won the last of his five elections to the House. Hoping to end that dry spell, the world’s richest man and recent Republican benefactor Elon Musk announced over the weekend that he was forming the “America Party” to take on the “one-party system.” But breaking the nearly century-long hold that the major parties have had over Congress will be a tall order for a nascent national party — even one with the resources of Musk. Three decades ago, Texas billionaire H. Ross Perot launched and bankrolled the Reform Party. Despite having some success at the state level — and drawing notable members, including Trump, for a brief while — the party’s nominees for Congress have gone winless. Congressional candidates have had better luck breaking from the two main parties on a smaller scale. Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine have been repeatedly elected as independents, and a few lawmakers before them were elected as members of state or regional parties, such as the New York-centric Conservative and American Labor parties, Wisconsin’s strain of the Progressive Party or Minnesota’s Farmer-Labor Party (which merged with national Democrats in 1944). Former Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, the 2000 Democratic vice presidential nominee who died last year, even managed to get himself reelected as a member of a newly formed (and incredibly niche) “Connecticut for Lieberman Party” after losing the Democratic primary to future Gov. Ned Lamont in 2006. — By Roll Call’s Ryan Kelly Coming up FEC reports due Tuesday will provide an updated snapshot of how much candidates raised during the three months ended June 30 and how much cash they have on hand heading into the second half of the off year. Also on Tuesday, voters in Arizona’s 7th District will decide on their nominees for the September special election to complete the remainder of Grijalva’s term. Photo finish Nebraska independent Dan Osborn, pictured here during a campaign stop at a restaurant in the city of Neligh in October, is making another bid for Senate. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call) Subscribe now using this link so you don’t miss out on the best news and analysis from our team.
