Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here. Redistricting has already thrown a long shadow over the 2026 midterm elections, and we’re not done yet. As our colleague Michael Macagnone reported, a Virginia judge in deep-red Tazewell County late Wednesday sided with Republicans challenging the commonwealth’s new redistricting referendum, just one day after voters approved a new map that would favor Democrats in 10 of 11 House seats in the Old Dominion. Ultimately, the Supreme Court of Virginia is expected determine the constitutionality of the redistricting effort. Meanwhile, Florida Republicans have redistricting on the agenda for next week’s special session of the state legislature. As Mary Ellen explained, it’s not yet clear how Florida legislators will handle a redraw of the congressional lines. Republicans are under pressure to try to extract as many seats as possible. But some Republican lawmakers have expressed caution about a more aggressive gerrymander, which could jeopardize Republican incumbents by siphoning off GOP voters in red districts. Then there’s a looming Supreme Court case that could have a more far-reaching impact. The court is poised to decide the constitutionality of a key provision of the Voting Rights Act, the landmark civil rights law that has been used to address efforts to dilute the voting strength of Black Americans. The case focused on whether Louisiana lawmakers violated the Constitution when they created a second Black-majority district. In oral arguments in October, the justices appeared ready to limit the use of race as a factor in drawing congressional boundaries, Ryan Tarinelli reported. If the court strikes down the provision, Republican-controlled states across the South would be emboldened to redraw their maps. An analysis by The New York Times last fall found that the GOP could net 12 additional seats if the provision were struck down, far more than what they may end up gaining through the mid-decade redistricting effort. The justices could also limit the effect of the ruling this year, letting the elections move forward under current maps before a redistricting bonanza in the 2028 cycle. The impact of the ruling is the big unknown, and timing is critical: The court is likely to rule by the time its term ends, in late June or early July. By then, many states will have already held primaries, and filing deadlines in a number of others will have passed. Starting gate A complicated stamp of approval: In competitive Republican primaries, President Donald Trump’s endorsement is widely viewed as a golden ticket that can lift a candidate to victory. But in purple-shaded battlegrounds like Nebraska’s 2nd District that are key to the GOP’s effort to maintain its House majority, Trump’s backing comes with risks as well as rewards. Virginia shuffle: As Democrats celebrated their narrow victory in Virginia’s redistricting referendum and Republicans look to the courts to block it, some candidates are moving ahead with plans to switch districts to conform with the new map. Resigned: Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, D-Fla., resigned from the House on Tuesday, becoming the third lawmaker to step down in just over a week, our colleagues Nina Heller and Valerie Yurk report. Her resignation came minutes before the House Ethics Committee was set to consider her punishment for ethics violations and as some lawmakers were pushing for her to be expelled. She continues to face a federal indictment, in which she is accused of funnelling Federal Emergency Management Agency overpayments to her campaign. RIP: Rep. David Scott, D-Ga., who became the first Black chair of the House Agriculture Committee in 2021 and worked to secure debt relief for socially disadvantaged farmers and ranchers, died Wednesday at age 80, Valerie reports. And former Rep. David B. McKinley, R-W.Va., who served six terms in the House and was an advocate for coal miners, died last week, Kelly Livingston reports. ICYMI Ad watch: The Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC with ties to Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., has announced $153 million in fall ad reservations, spanning 38 media markets. Meanwhile, its Democratic counterpart, House Majority PAC, announced $272 million in initial ad reservations, including $80 million in digital ad reservations. Endorsements: The Republican Jewish Coalition is backing eight GOP Senate candidates: Sens. Dan Sullivan of Alaska, Ashley Moody of Florida, Pete Ricketts of Nebraska and Jon Husted of Ohio, Iowa Rep. Ashley Hinson, former Michigan Rep. Mike Rogers, Montana’s Kurt Alme and North Carolina’s Michael Whatley. Meanwhile, the campaign arm of Planned Parenthood has endorsed independent candidate Mayra Macías in Illinois’ 4th District, bypassing Democratic nominee Patty García, the handpicked successor of retiring Rep. Jesús “Chuy” García. Interest groups: The Human Rights Campaign launched a $15 million effort for the 2026 midterm campaign. The LGBTQ rights group is focusing on flipping eight House seats: Arizona’s 1st and 6th districts; California’s 22nd and 48th; Michigan’s 7th; New York’s 17th; and Pennsylvania’s 7th and 8th. Guv departures: In California, former state Controller Betty Yee dropped out of the crowded all-party primary field and endorsed fellow Democrat Tom Steyer. In Michigan, former state House Speaker Tom Leonard ended his bid for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, citing the "increasingly negative” tenor of the race. Democratic divisions: Michigan Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet said on social media that she saw “deeply troubling” behavior at the Michigan Democratic Party convention last weekend. The freshman Democrat, who represents a battleground district Trump carried in 2024, accused attendees of bullying and criticized the nomination of candidates “with extreme positions and records — like calling Tucker Carlson 'a real one,' Hezbollah leaders 'martyrs,' or amplifying Qasem Soleimani.” McDonald Rivet’s sister, Oakland County prosecutor Karen McDonald, lost the Democratic nomination for state attorney general to a more progressive rival at the convention. Nathan's notes Hating on Congress is a bipartisan pastime, with the latest Gallup tracking survey showing the body with an approval rating of just 16 percent. Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales of Inside Elections offers two specific actions Capitol Hill lawmakers could take to improve public perceptions of their workplace. What we're reading The chatbot election: AI chatbots such as Claude and ChatGPT are already ubiquitous sources of information for millions of people. But NOTUS found that political operatives aren’t prepared for how they’ll be used by voters — and what to do if the information they provide is wrong. Wrestling in a new ring: The New Yorker goes deep on Education Secretary Linda McMahon’s wrestling roots and how the experience of leading the WWE prepared her for a role in Trump’s Cabinet. Base struggles: The Des Moines Register examines GOP Rep. Randy Feenstra’s challenges connecting with his party’s base in his bid to become Iowa’s next governor. One Republican told the newspaper he wishes Feenstra would engage more in the primary process. “Anyone but Randy,’’ another GOP voter said. New York state of mind: Politico reports that Democrats are looking at a few House districts beyond the Empire State’s most competitive seats as potential pickup opportunities, including retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik’s North Country seat, which Trump carried by more than 20 points last year. #ALSEN: National Journal looks at Alabama’s open Senate race, in which Rep. Barry Moore has consolidated support from Trump and Senate Republicans, but either state Attorney General Steve Marshall or former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson could force a runoff in the May 19 primary. The count: 4 That's the number of congressional candidates who have received five-year bans and monetary fines from the prediction market Kalshi this year for “insider trading.” Kyle Langford: At the time of his trades, Langford was running a controversial campaign for governor as a “California first” Republican. In January, days after seven-term Democratic Rep. Julia Brownley announced her retirement, Langford announced he would run as a Democrat for her Ventura County-based seat. He ended up not making the June 2 primary ballot. Matt Klein: A Minnesota state senator and Democratic candidate to succeed Rep. Angie Craig in the 2nd District, Klein acknowledged making a $50 trade on his candidacy. "This was a mistake and I apologize," he said in a statement Wednesday. Ezekiel Enriquez: The Texas Republican accepted Kalshi's settlement offer a month after garnering 1,302 votes and finishing 11th in the GOP primary to succeed Rep. Chip Roy in a district northwest of San Antonio. Mark Moran: A former Wall Street banker and contestant on reality dating show “FBoy Island," Moran launched a Democratic primary challenge to Virginia Sen. Mark Warner before switching to an independent bid. He claims he placed a single $100 bet in order to reveal "corruption." Kalshi, though, alleges that Moran made at least 12 prohibited trades in two different markets over a three-month period. — Ryan Kelly Key race: #PA07 Candidates: Four Democrats — firefighter and union leader Bob Brooks, former federal prosecutor and Marine veteran Ryan Crosswell, Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure and engineer Carol Obando-Derstine — are seeking to challenge freshman Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie. Why it matters: Pennsylvania’s 7th District is one of the most competitive in the country and a top priority for both parties in this year’s midterms. Mackenzie flipped the district in 2024, unseating Democrat Susan Wild, and is unopposed for the Republican nomination in the May 19 primary. Cash dash: Mackenzie has built a significant war chest as he prepares for his first House reelection fight. He’s raised $3.5 million this cycle and had nearly $2.5 million stockpiled at the end of March. Among the Democrats, Crosswell has been the top fundraiser, bringing in $1.6 million through March, with $715,000 banked. Brooks hauled in $1 million and had $544,000 on hand at the end of the first quarter. Obando-Derstine raised $543,000 and had $128,000 available, while McClure raised $501,000, including a $200,000 loan, and had $285,000 available. Brooks has also benefited from outside spending. Stronger Together PA has so far spent half a million on ads supporting him, while the Democratic Leadership Project PAC has spent $49,000 on mailers, about half of what the group has said they’ll spend on mail in the race, and the Working Families Party has spent $25,000 on his behalf. Backers: Brooks touts endorsements from Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, as well as Pennsylvania Reps. Chrissy Houlahan and Chris Deluzio and several labor unions. Obando-Derstine is backed by Wild as well as groups such as EMILY’s List, the campaign arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and Latino Victory Fund. Crosswell is supported by VoteVets and New Politics. McClure is touting support from local officials and a few unions. What they’re saying: Obando-Derstine, the only woman in the race, has talked about her status as a working mother and an immigrant and says she wants to focus on affordability, including energy issues and the cost of living. Crosswell has pitched himself as someone who stands up to Trump, noting in a recent ad that he testified against the president. Meanwhile, Brooks, who recently came under scrutiny for past Facebook posts, has pitched himself as a Democrat who could win back working-class voters and also says he would focus on affordability if elected. His campaign touted a poll showing him leading the Democratic primary by 7 points, with 36 percent of voters undecided. McClure is relying on his experience in local government and has spoken of the need to “protect our democracy.” Terrain: The Allentown-anchored 7th District includes Carbon, Lehigh and Northampton counties. Trump carried the district by 3 points in 2024, according to calculations by Inside Elections, which rates this year’s race a Toss-up. Wild card: Mackenzie’s 1-point win over Wild represented the narrowest margin of victory for any Pennsylvania member of the House in 2024. Coming up The Florida Legislature is scheduled to convene for a special session, beginning Tuesday, with mid-decade redistricting on the agenda. Photo finish Analilia Mejía, right, talks with fellow New Jersey Democrat Nellie Pou before Mejía’s swearing-in ceremony at the Capitol on Monday. Mejía, the daughter of Dominican and Colombian immigrants, is the second Latina elected to Congress from New Jersey after Pou. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call) Subscribe now using this link so you don’t miss out on the best news and analysis from our team.
