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Outlier or early warning? Late Iowa Poll confounds 

Ann Selzer shocked the political world on Saturday evening with a poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of former President Donald Trump by 3 points in Iowa, 47 percent to 44 percent.

Trump’s biggest problem remains Trump

A noteworthy 47 percent of those who responded selected Vice President Harris, while only 38 percent identified former President Trump.

Campaigns · 118th Congress

At the Races: Recapping the season

> Wild card: An Impact Research poll released Thursday by House Majority PAC, a super PAC supporting Democratic candidates, found a virtual dead heat, with Kiggans at 48 percent and Cotter Smasal at 47

Campaigns · 118th Congress

At the Races: Number crunch

Democrats point to an internal poll from mid-August showing Tran and Steel tied at 47 percent and say Biden’s decision to drop his presidential bid is providing Tran and other down-ballot candidates with

Campaigns · 118th Congress

At the Races: New guy on the ticket

The poll of 420 registered voters found 47 percent supported Molinaro and 38 percent backed Riley, with 14 percent undecided.

A threat to democracy no one is talking about

In 2016, 18 percent of the electorate had an unfavorable view of both Trump and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton; Trump won those voters 47 percent to 30 percent.

Congress · 117th Congress

Senate immigration showdown ends with Title 42 stalemate

Lee’s amendment then was rejected on a 47-50 vote. Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., said Thursday that the Sinema-Tester amendment extending Title 42 was “set up not to pass.”

Campaigns · 117th Congress

Purity vs. pragmatism in key race for governor

Tim Pawlenty won reelection by 1 point (and with less than 47 percent of the vote). In 2020, Biden defeated President Donald Trump by 7 points.  

Campaigns · 117th Congress

Key results from Tuesday’s primaries and special election

Elizabeth Krause won the the seven-candidate Democratic primary with 47 percent in a race called minutes later. The November race is rated Solid Republican by Inside Elections.

Campaigns · 117th Congress

Don’t rule out a GOP Senate wave

But in the Senate, Democrats won eight seats, taking them from 47 seats to 55 seats and the majority.

Opinion · 117th Congress

Election Day 2022 will be Independents’ Day

Our July 6-8 Winning the Issues survey saw Biden’s job approval underwater, with 40 percent of independents approving the job he is doing and 47 percent disapproving.