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By Daniela Altimari, Niels Lesniewski and Mary Ellen McIntire

Debates have been a part of politics since the days of Lincoln-Douglas.

But lately, an increasing number of candidates from both parties have concluded that the risks of a public faceoff with their opponents outweigh the potential advantages. 

Key midterm contests for Congress and governor are likely to go without at least one formal debate between the major contenders. The list includes high-profile Senate races in Ohio and Texas, where Democrat James Talarico’s challenge to debate Republican opponent Ken Paxton on Fox News has gone unanswered. 

And voters in Arizona and Florida will likely go without seeing their gubernatorial candidates face one another in a public forum. 

The reasons are varied: Some candidates assert that debates aren’t worth their time, especially given the declining share of voters tuning in to watch. And with the money flooding many of these campaigns, candidates can pay to air their message without risking a debate gaffe.

In Ohio, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Amy Acton rejected a debate request from Republican rival Vivek Ramaswamy because, her campaign says, she does not want to platform “a scam artist who spreads baseless lies about her and her family.”

On the House side, Democrat Rebecca Cooke and Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden, competing in a battleground race in Wisconsin, couldn’t come to an agreement on a debate schedule. The same is true in Virginia, where Republican Rep. Rob Wittman and Democratic challenger Shannon Taylor rebuffed requests by the League of Women Voters to appear at a joint candidate forum.

It’s not unusual for challengers in difficult races to seek multiple debates with an incumbent. For instance, in red-leaning South Carolina, Democrat Annie Andrews reportedly requested four debates with Republican Sen. Darline Graham, who was appointed to the seat of her late brother this summer. Graham, though, perhaps wary of her own mishap at an August primary debate, has confirmed her participation in just one so far.  

Still, even a lone debate could give an underfunded and low-profile candidate a jolt of energy from a moment that goes viral. Take megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton, the Democrat aiming to unseat Republican Sen. Roger Marshall in Kansas. Hamilton’s campaign received a national boost last month after clips of the pair’s debate featuring a crowd jeering Marshall became a trending topic on social media.

But for some candidates, the perils of unscripted blunder are just too great. After all, as we all know, a few ill-considered moments on a debate stage can quickly unravel a campaign.

Starting gate

Most vulnerable: We revisited our rankings of Congress’ most vulnerable incumbents with a little over a month to go until Election Day. On the House side, redistricting continues to shape the top of the list, with California Republican James Gallagher sliding into the top spot after winning a special election earlier this year for a seat that has been redrawn as safely blue. On the Senate side, Ohio Republican Jon Husted takes the top spot after the previous leader, Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy, lost his GOP primary earlier this year.

#TX23: Democrats looking to wrest control of the House see a path to an unlikely upset in a sprawling Texas district that Donald Trump would have carried by double digits. The race for the 23rd District pits Republican Brandon Herrera, a gun influencer with a history of inflammatory social media posts, against Democrat Katy Padilla Stout, a teacher-turned-child-welfare lawyer. It’s one of several contests to watch should a blue wave build on Election Day. 

‘Toothless’ or playing politics: Senators’ final day in Washington before the campaign recess turned into a showcase of midterm messaging over votes on two hot topics: data center electricity costs and lawmakers’ ability to buy and sell stocks. Our colleagues Savannah Behrmann, Kelly Livingston and Nina Heller explain. 

#FL07: Florida Democrat Bale Dalton unveiled an anticorruption plan on Thursday, joining other Democrats running in red-leaning districts who say Washington needs an ethics overhaul. Dalton is running in the Republican-leaning 7th District against a GOP opponent who defeated scandal-plagued Rep. Cory Mills in the primary.

Missouri map: The Supreme Court on Friday again instructed Missouri to use its 2022 congressional map in next month’s elections, rather than the new map drawn last year that was used for primary elections in August. The ruling seemingly brought to a close a month of legal back-and-forth over which map would be used.

From staffer to member: Our colleague Jackie Wang talked to Arizona Rep. Yassamin Ansari about lessons learned from her time interning for Nancy Pelosi, how she earned the nickname “Madam President,” and what it’s like being an Iranian American in Congress during the current war.

ICYMI

#VA05: Democratic former Rep. Tom Perriello is locked in a margin-of-error race against GOP Rep. John McGuire in Virginia’s 5th District, according to an internal Perriello campaign poll shared first with CQ Roll Call. The Sept. 21-24 survey of likely voters found McGuire at 46 percent and Perriello at 45 percent, with independent candidate Cooke Costa Harvey taking 6 percent and 3 percent undecided.

Resigned: New Jersey Lt. Gov. Dale Caldwell resigned Friday, less than a year after taking office, after a report accused him of sexual harassment and other ethical lapses. Gov. Mikie Sherrill has said she would name a new second-in-command within 45 days.

SMP to Texas: Senate Majority PAC, the outside money group aligned with Senate Democrats, has entered the playing field in Texas on behalf of James Talarico, who faces Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton. But GOP outside groups continue to dominate in spending, with the race on track to be the most expensive Senate contest this year, Axios reports. 

Democratic endorsements: The political arm of the center-left New Democrat Coalition is backing several of the party’s nominees in red-leaning seats: Chris Backemeyer in Nebraska’s 1st District, Teresa Benitez-Thompson in Nevada’s 2nd, Mitchell Berman in Wisconsin’s 1st, Blake Gendebien in New York’s 21st, Kristina Knickerbocker in Ohio’s 10th, Nancy Lacore in South Carolina’s 1st and Raymond Smith in North Carolina’s 3rd. EMILY’s List  has endorsed the following women running for governor: Cyndi Munson in Oklahoma, Cinde Warmington in New Hampshire, Cindy Holscher in Kansas and Helena Buonanno Foulkes in Rhode Island. 

Republican endorsements: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce announced a string of endorsements over the past week, including a handful of Republicans in competitive races. They include Michael Whatley, who’s running for North Carolina’s open Senate seat and appointed Ohio Sen. Jon Husted. Former Ohio state Rep. Derek Merrin, who is seeking a rematch against Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur, announced he would be receiving the chamber’s support at an event Friday in Toledo.

Not going anywhere: Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer told Politico he intends to seek another term leading his caucus, whether Democrats flip the chamber or not.

Nathan’s notes

Most political handicappers are currently predicting a good midterm election for Democrats, with the opposition party increasingly favored to win majorities in the House and Senate. But what if they’ve gotten it wrong? Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales of Inside Elections explores that possibility. 

What we’re reading

News or PR? Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick’s campaign has cited reports from Patch, a hyperlocal news site covering his southeast Pennsylvania district, that are critical of his Democratic opponent, Bob Harvie. But the stories carry the byline of Dave Sommers, a retired reporter who was once prosecuted for trafficking in protected turtles. Politico looked into Sommers’ background and found that he has financial ties to Fitzpatrick’s campaign and even attended the lawmaker’s recent wedding.

The enemy of my enemy is my friend: Eric Jones is testing a novel theory in his effort to unseat fellow Democrat Mike Thompson in a redrawn Northern California House district. The former venture capitalist is working to win over anti-establishment voters across the political spectrum, courting both progressive Democrats and disaffected Republicans, CalMatters reports.

Last frontier: Accusations of taking marching orders from political forces in the “Lower 48” have become key attack lines in Alaska’s Senate race, The Associated Press reports from Juneau.

The politics of oil and gas: As a state legislator, Talarico promised to reject campaign donations from people with ties to the fossil fuel industry. Now, as a Senate candidate, Talarico has moved away from that pledge, prompting the group No Fossil Fuel Money to consider placing him on its “wall of shame” if he doesn’t return or donate the funds, NBC News reports.

State of play: National Journal looks at four states, where control of the state legislature could be decided by razor-thin margins next month.

The count: 23

That’s the combined number of times the six Republicans on our latest list of the most vulnerable senators have broken from Trump’s position on floor votes — out of a combined total of nearly 1,500 cast — since his second term started.

All 23 were cast by just one of them: Maine’s Susan Collins. 

Unlike the other five, who are seeking reelection in Republican-leaning states, Collins is running for a sixth term in a blue state, with an unpopular president clouding her campaign by association.

The race may well be decided next month by voters judging whether the longtime senator’s support of the president is a glass 92 percent full or 8 percent empty. Read the full story here. 

– By Roll Call’s Ryan Kelly

Key race: #FL14

Candidates: After years being comfortably reelected, Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor faces the fight of her political life against Republican former state Rep. Mike Beltran.

Why it matters: Florida Republicans redrew the state’s congressional map this spring and Castor’s 14th District was among several that were drastically changed. The congresswoman is now seeking a 11th term in a district that Trump would have carried by double digits in 2024. 

Cash dash: Castor reported raising $2.3 million and had $1.7 million banked as of July 29, when Florida candidates last filed federal fundraising reports ahead of the state’s August primary. Beltran raised $2.1 million and had $1.9 million on hand. Beltran has benefited from significant outside spending, including $1.9 million by No Going Back PAC, which is tied to Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC, as well as $695,000 from the Freedom Caucus Fund and $456,000 from the political arm of the conservative Club for Growth. Castor has also gotten some outside support, including $425,000 from the CFFE PAC, $349,000 from Elect Democratic Women and $78,000 from the Progressive Turnout Project. 

Backers: Beltran has touted support from Trump, and is also endorsed by the Freedom Caucus Fund and the Florida Police Benevolent Association. Groups backing Castor include DMFI PAC, EMILY’s List and the Florida AFL-CIO.

What they’re saying: Castor has highlighted her support for a ban on congressional stock trading in multiple ads, saying she broke with Democrats to do so. She has also emphasized her support for the military and veterans, casting herself as someone who works across party lines. Beltran, for his part, released an ad Thursday that argued that Castor hasn’t been effective over her two decades in Congress. “What works here in Florida can work for America,” he says in the spot. In his primary — which he won with 46 percent over a crowded field — Beltran positioned himself as “MAGA Mike Beltran.”

Terrain: The Tampa-area seat was redrawn to exclude the St. Petersburg portion of the district and now takes in South Tampa and conservative suburban and rural areas in Hillsborough County. Trump would have carried the district by 11 points in 2024, according to Inside Elections, which rates the race a Toss-up.

Wild card: The presence of a Libertarian and two independent candidates on the fall ballot could split the anti-Democratic vote in November. Castor and Beltran are set to meet for a radio debate Friday, as well as a second debate later this month.

Coming up

Trump is headlining a spate of campaign rallies in red states, beginning later Thursday in Oklahoma, followed by trips to Alabama on Friday, Ohio on Saturday and Nebraska on Monday.

Photo finish

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