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Campaigns · 117th Congress

How the battleground states have shifted over the past decade

Republicans have the advantage in Georgia (R+4.5 points), North Carolina (R+2.9) and Arizona (R+1.8), while Democrats have the edge in Wisconsin (D+1), Nevada (D+1.7), New Hampshire (D+2.1), Pennsylvania

Campaigns · 117th Congress

With control on the line, these 10 senators are most vulnerable

But Republican strategists maintain that Johnson is running a tight campaign, reflected in a Marquette Law School Poll released Wednesday that showed Johnson leading by 1 point over Lt. Gov.

Campaigns · 117th Congress

It’s probably still the economy, stupid

While public opinion polls consistently show support for preserving Roe is strong, the key electoral questions are (1) How many people will change their partisan vote intention because Roe is overturned

Campaigns · 117th Congress

Senate ratings show three Democrats in toss-up races

That doesn’t bode well for the party this year when Biden’s victory in five of the battleground states was by less than 2.5 points, including three by less than 1 point. 

Campaigns · 117th Congress

Infrastructure uncertainty rankles vulnerable Democrats

Democrats clashed this week over whether the more than $1 trillion infrastructure bill should move in tandem with a $3.5 trillion reconciliation package covering a range of Biden administration priorities