SCRANTON, Pa. — In this corner of northeastern Pennsylvania, the Democrat running for a battleground House seat sees parallels between her race and Donald Trump’s first election in 2016. Paige Cognetti, who has led Scranton as mayor since 2020, is challenging Republican freshman Rob Bresnahan Jr. in the 8th District, where she hopes to ride an anti-corruption message all the way to Congress. “From my vantage point, this is an area that is anti-corruption, and back in 2016, Trump’s promise to ‘Drain the swamp,’ resonated,” Cognetti said in a recent interview. “It’s clear in 2026 that that’s not the case.” Cognetti is not the only Democratic House hopeful pitching voters on anti-corruption plans this year. But she is one of four Democrats seeking to flip battleground districts in the commonwealth that could well decide which party wins the House majority this year — or how large that majority may be. Democrats need a net gain of three seats to take control of the House, underscoring the importance of Pennsylvania, with its four competitive seats. Both parties are fiercely contesting Pennsylvania’s 1st, 7th, 8th and 10th districts, with the latter three ranking among the top 25 House races to attract the most outside spending as of Oct. 12, according to a CQ Roll Call analysis. Speaker Mike Johnson and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries have both made recent trips to the commonwealth, signaling its importance to both parties. Pennsylvania was a bright spot for Republicans two years ago. Trump carried the commonwealth on his way to a second term, while Bresnahan knocked off longtime Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright in the 8th District, and Republican Ryan Mackenzie flipped the neighboring 7th District. Now, the two freshman lawmakers face their first reelection bids, typically considered challenging races for a House member in a competitive seat. Several factors, including Trump’s low job approval rating and higher enthusiasm among Democratic voters, could be working against them, according to Michael Berkman, a political science professor at Pennsylvania State University. “It is just normal politics that a winning presidential candidate brings a lot of people in with him,” Berkman said. “Those people kind of retreat in a midterm, especially if the president is unpopular, while the referendum on him from the other side brings a lot of people out.” Democrats are also hoping for a top-of-the-ticket advantage of their own this year, with popular Gov. Josh Shapiro heavily favored to win a second term leading the battleground state. Shapiro campaigned Saturday in Bucks County, along with Jeffries and County Commissioner Bob Harvie, who Democrats hope will oust Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick next month in the 1st District. Democrats also have their eye on the 10th District in central Pennsylvania, where former TV anchor Janelle Stelson is facing off against Republican Rep. Scott Perry for the second straight cycle. Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates the races for the 7th District, where Mackenzie faces Democratic firefighters’ union leader Bob Brooks, and the 8th and 10th districts as Toss-ups. Flipping the 1st District, a longtime Democratic target and a rare GOP-held seat that Kamala Harris carried in 2024, may be a tougher task. Inside Elections rates the race Lean Republican. Cognetti gestures while talking with a guest at the campaign event in Jessup, Pa., on Oct. 7. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call) Shifting politics As working-class areas around the country shifted to the right during the Trump era, Pennsylvania’s 8th District was no exception. Trump carried the district — where just over a quarter of the population has a college degree — by 9 points in 2024, according to calculations by Inside Elections. District voters would have also backed him in his previous elections under the current boundaries. In between, though, Shapiro carried the seat by 9 points during his initial 2022 run for governor. Cartwright, a former whip for the Congressional Progressive Caucus, was a longtime Republican target until he lost in 2024, when Bresnahan beat him by less than 2 points. Seeking reelection in a difficult political environment, Bresnahan is relying on strong union support and points to funds he’s secured for his district over the past two years. In a phone interview, he also ticked off various times he’s broken with his own party. He cited a discharge petition lawmakers forced the House to consider last year that was focused on restoring collective bargaining rights for federal workers. His vote in favor of the measure helped win him the endorsement of the American Federation of Government Employees. “They’re very enthusiastic about the fact that I had the courage to do something about that,” he said. “When you force something to the floor to actually have a vote, it shows that I’m their friend.” Pennsylvania Rep. Rob Bresnahan Jr. speaks during the Republican midterm convention in Dallas in September. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call) Cognetti, a former member of the Scranton school board, won a 2019 special mayoral election as an independent after the city’s Democratic mayor resigned and pleaded guilty to federal charges, including bribery and conspiracy. In the interview, Cognetti spoke of her willingness “to take on the machine” in an effort to rid the city of corruption — something she has turned into her longtime campaign slogan, “Paige against the machine.” At a pair of campaign stops last week with senior voters, she said an anti-corruption agenda would help facilitate Democrats’ economic agenda, such as restoring Medicaid cuts. Cognetti has called for term limits on members of Congress and the Supreme Court, a ban on former members becoming lobbyists and an end to corporate PAC donations and congressional stock trading. “You should try to do all of them in parallel, but truly, though, like the true health care reforms that this country needs, I think it’s unlikely that we get there until we really push out the corporate PAC money,” she said. Cognetti and Democrats have hammered Bresnahan over stock trades he’s made since taking office, although Bresnahan’s office has said an outside financial institution had managed his investments. The Republican has also pushed back, saying in a recent ad that he voted to ban congressional stock trading while pointing to Cognetti’s past work at Goldman Sachs. “I’m fully supportive of finding a way to eradicate any indications of impropriety,” Bresnahan, a former electrical contracting executive, said of efforts to ease the transition for people coming to Congress after working in the private sector. Outside groups have invested more than $10 million into the race. Congressional Leadership Fund, the top House GOP super PAC, has invested more than $3 million, while its Democratic counterpart, House Majority PAC, has spent $1.7 million.
