Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here. The push-pull between conservatives and more moderate-minded Republicans over how to address Medicaid spending in the GOP budget reconciliation bill was on full display this week, as lawmakers seek to move forward on a comprehensive package. Medicaid is one of several policy issues that Republicans need to make decisions on as they look to mark up major portions of their “big, beautiful bill” next week. And the decisions they make are likely to wind up in campaign ads next year, with outside groups already weighing in. The conservative American Action Network announced a $7 million ad campaign in 30 districts this week. Some of the ads support Republican lawmakers for taking steps to protect seniors’ health care, while others target Democrats over what they call the “Biden pill penalty” and argue that Democratic policies would raise health care costs. One spot that seeks to support Virginia Rep. Jen Kiggans, a two-term Republican in a race that Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates a Toss-up, alludes to “a lot of misinformation out there.” Democrats have already signaled they plan to make potential Medicaid cuts an issue in next year’s midterm elections. And it’s not just health care that could shape the 2026 midterms. GOP Reps. Zach Nunn of Iowa, Don Bacon of Nebraska and Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin offered a resolution this week opposing policies that would reduce benefits or cut enrollment in Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, formerly known as food stamps, for people younger than 19 or older than 65, pregnant women and individuals with disabilities. All three represent battleground districts. GOP tax writers also must decide how to handle a cap on state and local tax deductions, also known as SALT, that some battleground Republicans from blue states are pushing to raise. Starting gate Most vulnerable: Yes, we know the midterms are well over a year away, but it was time for a formal look at the most vulnerable incumbents in the House and Senate. Our initial Senate list is rather short because of a few early retirement announcements in battleground states, but it could grow if Democrats are able to put up strong candidates or the political environment shifts further to their benefit. Our House list features lawmakers who had some of the tightest wins last year, as well as more seasoned members whose district dynamics guarantee them competitive races. Some of those veterans could shift off the list later as other battleground lawmakers garner official opponents and the defining issues of the cycle become clearer. If you’d rather listen, Mary Ellen and Daniela joined CQ Roll Call Editor-in-Chief Jason Dick on the latest “Political Theater” podcast to discuss how we make these lists and who made the cut. Ossoff gets a challenger: Georgia Rep. Earl L. “Buddy” Carter on Thursday became the first major Republican to enter the Senate race against Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff, launching a campaign days after Gov. Brian Kemp dashed GOP hopes by saying he was sitting out the race. Our colleague Victor Feldman has more. Illinois Democrats jump in: Reps. Robin Kelly and Raja Krishnamoorthi of Illinois announced on consecutive days this week that they’re running for the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Senate Minority Whip Richard J. Durbin. Another open seat in Illinois: Democratic Rep. Jan Schakowsky, a longtime progressive leader, said this week that she’ll retire at the end of next year. Our colleague Jacob Fulton has the story. There’s likely to be a competitive Democratic primary to succeed the Illinois congresswoman: Social media influencer Kat Abughazaleh had already launched a campaign prior to Schakowsky’s announcement, while state Sen. Laura Fine entered the race on Tuesday. A new King: Angus King III, the namesake son of the independent Maine senator, is running for governor of the Pine Tree State as a Democrat. Meanwhile, Republican former Maine Gov. Paul LePage announced a bid for the rural 2nd District. That seat is currently held by Democratic Rep. Jared Golden, who may also be eyeing a bid for statewide office. ICYMI Primary challenge: Massachusetts Rep. Stephen F. Lynch is set to face a Democratic primary challenge from Patrick Roath, a lawyer and voting rights advocate. Roath said in a video posted to social media that “new leadership and fresh perspectives” were needed to take on issues like housing and the cost of child care and health care. He added that there should be a conversation around term limits for elected officials. Lynch is currently serving his 12th full term in the House. Lawler’s endorsement: President Donald Trump has endorsed New York Rep. Mike Lawler for reelection to his Hudson Valley seat. Lawler has been viewed as a potential gubernatorial candidate next year, but GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik, whose nomination to be U.S. ambassador to the United Nations was derailed, may also be eyeing that race. Cornyn staffs up: Republican Sen. John Cornyn is staffing up for the Texas primary, where he faces a challenge from state Attorney General Ken Paxton. Cornyn has hired a lot of familiar names, as The Texas Tribune detailed. Connolly backs former chief: In a letter to constituents, Virginia Democratic Rep. Gerald E. Connolly endorsed Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw to succeed him in the commonwealth’s 11th District. Walkinshaw, Connolly’s former chief of staff, also earned an endorsement Thursday from former Rep. Jennifer Wexton, who represented the neighboring 11th District. Meanwhile, state Sen. Stella Pekarsky has entered the Democratic primary to succeed Connolly, who is once again battling cancer and not seeking reelection in 2026. Oversight update: Speaking of Connolly, our former colleague Abby Livingston writes for Puck on the behind-the-scenes maneuvering among Democrats for Connolly’s ranking member slot on the Oversight and Government Reform Committee. Connolly has indicated he will step aside from that role even before he leaves the House. A challenge from the left? Activists are pressing the Washington State Democratic Central Committee to remain neutral if Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez faces a challenge from a fellow Democrat in the state’s all-party primary. Gluesenkamp Pérez “is not turning up to be the person I thought I was fighting for,” a protester at a recent town hall told KATU. San Antonio mayor: The race to lead the second-largest city in Texas is heading to a June 7 runoff between two-time Democratic congressional candidate Gina Ortiz Jones and former Texas Secretary of State Rolando Pablos, who was appointed by Republican Gov. Greg Abbott. Incumbent Mayor Ron Nirenberg is term-limited. Cincinnati mayor: Cory Bowman, the half-brother of Vice President JD Vance, advanced to the fall election for mayor of Ohio’s third-most-populous city. But he will be a decided underdog against incumbent Aftab Pureval, a former Democratic congressional candidate, who finished nearly 70 points ahead of Bowman in Tuesday’s top-two nonpartisan primary. Nathan’s notes If Democrats want to flip the Senate next year, they’d need to win at least a few seats in states where they haven’t won Senate elections in a long time. But streaks are meant to be broken, Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales of Inside Elections writes — and in politics, especially, nothing is permanent. What we’re reading Resistance warrior: The Oregonian looks at how Democratic Sen. Ron Wyden has traded his affable image for a more confrontational style in the Trump era, an approach that harks back to his days in the state legislature. And speaking of Wyden, the 76-year-old senator recently told OPB that he intends to run for reelection in 2028, when he’ll be 79. Sunshine State fall: Not long ago, Ron DeSantis embodied the future of the GOP. But the Florida governor is now at war with lawmakers of his own party, who are calling for an investigation into a charity run by his wife, Casey DeSantis, who is considering a gubernatorial run. DeSantis’ troubles started with his failed presidential primary bid. But, as Axios reports, “His vindictive and pugilistic style of politics left him further isolated in the Florida Capitol.” Who are the Trump token holders? Bloomberg examined the backgrounds of the top holders of Trump’s memecoin and found evidence to suggest most of them are based outside the United States. From higher paychecks and richer communities to fewer dolls and pencils: On the campaign trail, Trump promised an economic boom, but he’s now warning of sacrifice as his economic policies start to have an impact on American pocketbooks. The Washington Post charts the shift in the president’s rhetoric. Send lawyers and money: Connecticut Attorney General William Tong has joined more than a dozen lawsuits against the Trump administration. Now, the Democrat is seeking more money from the state legislature to fund the legal onslaught. “I need as much help as I can get,” Tong told Greenwich Time. “It’s a deluge, a nonstop avalanche of work.” The count: 29 That’s the number of former governors who have become voting members of the House since 1900, as Maine’s Paul LePage now looks to join the club. The most recent governor-turned-congressman was Florida’s Charlie Crist, the Republican-turned-Democrat who was first elected to Congress in 2016 and served through 2022. SmartPolitics, the nonpartisan site run by Eric Ostermeier of the University of Minnesota, compiled the full list back when Crist was first launching his House campaign, and there have been no additions since. Coming up Newly elected Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego is holding a town hall this weekend … in Bucks County, Pa., raising speculation that the Democrat could harbor 2028 presidential ambitions. Photo finish We go back to the CQ Roll Call archives this week for a photo of Rep. Jan Schakowsky as a freshman lawmaker in 1999. The longtime Illinois Democrat and well-known animal lover is retiring after 14 terms. Subscribe now using this link so you don’t miss out on the best news and analysis from our team.
